Levante – Sevilla Match Thread

Welcome back from far and wide (France)!

The international break gave us at MM the chance to serve up a truly rich analysis of Sevilla’s evolving formation and movement since the 2012-13 season began under Michel. Thanks, Tirasus! I’ll leave it to you tactical brains to figure out our formation for this week.

This weekend we hop on the AVE to Valencia to meet our friends at Levante for a match. I still have a soft spot for this club, whose last season so thrillingly ended in a 6th place finish after being promoted. They’ve finally fallen out of Europe, though, having been eliminated by Rubin Kazan earlier this March. Their spirits are in need of refreshment that a limp 1-1 draw with Granada the following week didn’t offer them. Having rested over the break, I’d expect them to come out with the kind of gusto that’s seen them rise all the way to….11th place. One place behind us?

Table Watch, Week 28

Hey, it’s the international break! Sounds like a great time for another edition of Table Watch! When we last looked in on the table, a series of fortunate results in week 24 had conspired to move Sevilla up to 10th, improbably close to European positions despite a season of mediocre performances and even a mid-season coaching change. Today we’ll examine how things looks today, and take a look at our next string of games to see if any likely results or trends present themselves.

But first! A couple stats to note as we peruse the table. First of all, Sevilla’s 4–0 result on Sunday gives them their best goal differential in recent memory at +3. This positive goal differential of course feels good, but it also could come in handy at the end of the season, as Sevilla is the only team outside the top six with a positive goal differential. Obviously a +3 GD is almost not positive at all, and knowing this team it could well be −6 in a week’s time. But for now it’s a nice little stat to see.

Another intersting stat: only the top three teams (Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atletico) have a better home record than Sevilla’s 10 wins. That’s pretty cool! Way to go, Sevilla! Unfortunately the companion to that stat is that only lowly, last-place Deportivo has a worse record on the road than us, having yet to manage a victory away from home (Sevilla: 1 away win this season). I guess when you average those two stats you’d expect to see Sevilla in the middle of the table, which is perhaps not coincidentally exactly where you find them today. So then let’s take a closer look at the table this week:

El Día Después

So. That was heartbreaking/frustrating/disastrous/(fill in negative adjective here). Sevilla lost a very important match which cost them a spot in a final, a guaranteed spot in Europe, AND the several million euros Europe would’ve brought, all in one game. It was frustrating for those reasons, but it was also really terrible because I think we’re all getting to a place where we really hate those colchoneros. And finally it was frustrating because the game seemed so damn winnable, and it felt like if we’d just played slightly less error-prone defense and if our finishing had been even a little bit sharper, we’d be celebrating a pretty comfortable win today. It’s not so much a bitter pill as an entire meal of bitter chewable pills.

Anyway, I woke up this morning wondering where we sit now, what goals we should now have for the season, and what we learned. Here are a few of my thoughts, and I’d love to hear yours:

• Antonio Reyes is worse than just awful; he’s wildly inconsistent and offers a fleeting glimpse of brilliance just often enough to merit inclusion in important matches. If he didn’t play well every 8 matches he’d never get on the field so he could flippantly lose possession all the time. I would prefer this–I would prefer he always sucked. It’s gotten to the point that I’ll probably resent him for playing well the next time he has an outstanding game sometime next month or whatever.

• Similarly, I can’t imagine why we’d ever need to play Navarro at left back again, barring perhaps Alberto being run over by a train. The kid has proven himself in games big and small, so play him. Case closed.

• Speaking of injuries and defensive personnel decisions, Spahic’s loan exit sure looked very suspect last night as we watched our CBs give up two goals by foolish mistakes in the first half hour of a game in which we absolutely could not concede. I know Del Nido said he left in part because he wanted to leave, but we must be down to whatever pesos we can still find in the couch cushions to make that move at this point in the season, with so much to play for and so much required to get it. An injury to any of our three remaining CBs means we don’t have the luxury of sitting whichever defensive liability looks to be the most disastrous on a particular week, and they haven’t looked especially inspiring, so that option is one I suspect we’ll miss at some point before the season’s over.

• And on the subject of what’s left for the season, our path to Europe is now only through the top end of the table. I’m not clear what the dual conditions of both CdR finalists qualifying for CL and Malaga’s disqualification from Europe will mean for qualifying for Europa. Usually the former scenario means that 7th place gets to go to Europa, but if Malaga finishes in the top 7, will their situation mean the last Europa spot is 8th? Regardless, the team clearly has some work to do, as there’s probably not going to be a scenario that sees 12th place doing anything but selling players all summer.

• Which brings me to my final point, which I was trying to make last week: we need to win these next three games against three bottom-dwelling squads. We need the points, we need the positive results, and we need the momentum.

Anyway, what do you guys think? Any takeaways from yesterday? What are your expectations and hopes for next season? Show the world your undying optimism or brutal realism in the comments below!

Table Watch: Week 24

Look, every time Sevilla wins, it’s good. It feels like a minor miracle. There should maybe be parades. But Friday’s win was particularly great because of a bunch of other results involving teams above them on the table. First, Levante drew with Sociedad, which is great because they’re both ahead of us on the table, and both dropped points. And Rayo lost to Real Madrid, which is also great because Rayo is one of the teams between us and Europa. And THEN Betis went and lost to Espanyol, which is great because ditto the whole Europa thing but also: BETIS LOST. Mmm, it’s delicious every time I say it. Anyway, all those results mean we moved up to 10th today, and that got me thinking about our status on the table, and before I knew it I was conjecturing, imagining, dreaming, and guessing about a LOT of things. And then I had a big old post. So if you enjoy reading lots of mostly baseless speculation in order to arrive at the conclusion that Sevilla would do well to win points from the games they play, WELL THEN READ ON!

The Afellay Principle

One reason this place always gets so quiet in the offseason is that we writers get busy with other projects (examples from the writers this summer: starting a new job, moving, travel, producing original community theater, etc). Another is that I can’t stand transfer season. I don’t enjoy the endless speculation, the wild click-bait headlines which produce their own click-bait headline-denying headlines, and the long-winded fantasies of what amazing players might come this year…if only money, geography, and possibly the space-time continuum weren’t factors (“What are Sevilla’s chances of signing a 1974 Maradona? What about a 2036 Bambinho? Click here to learn more!!!” (Terribly, terribly, really, terribly sorry about that. Ugh, I feel just awful about that. Really sorry.)).

But a paragraph by Kxevin in a post over at Barcelona Football Blog got me thinking, and thinking got me writing, and before I knew it, I had an offseason post. Kxevin writes that this summer Barca must:

Make a decision on Afellay. His talent is immense. His playing time will be minimal. He has skills as a winger, ball handler and attacker and is a unique player. The question is whether he is a unique player who will be happy with the playing time scraps that he will be getting from us next season. I am in favor of keeping him, as I think he does things that Cuenca/Tello can’t do. But if we keep him, we are going to have to actually use him, and integrate him into the side so that he isn’t Stranger in a Strange Land when he comes in. You could see him as part of an attacking trident that included Villa and Sanchez, or in midfield with Thiago for Copa matches and the like.

It’s an interesting problem Barca have with Afellay: they bought a very good player for very little money, and presumably believe he could become something great. But is there room for him in the squad? How do they develop him? How do they even play him at all? What’s his use in the squad? As Kxevin notes, he has a lot of talent and very little opportunity to play; a terrible combination for any player. If you’re a long-time reader of this space, it won’t surprise you that the above paragraph reminded me of when Barca signed Afellay, and of our response at the time, and of the conversation with Barca fans that happened both in the comments of that post and over at BFB. If you don’t feel like reading through internet comments of partisan soccer blogs (which would mean that you are an intelligent, reasonable person with important real-life things to attend to), I’ll summarize the exchange. On both sites, Sevilla fans lamented their club having followed Afellay closely for some time, only to have a much bigger club swoop in and grab him up; we lamented the loss of the player but also the likely loss of his chances to develop into a great player. Barca fans pointed out that Afellay was free to go where he wanted, and that Barca was free to sign who they wanted, and that finally Afellay very well could develop into a star within the confines of FCB. That led to a further discussion that gets at the point of this post, which feels like it needs its own paragraph (and this is getting long, so what the heck–let’s throw a jump in as well!).

The Last Bastion of Optimism

OK guys.  This season has been….  rough.  Jeremy served up the sobering reminder of who we are as Sevilla fans and what expectations are reasonable.  And then, with some help from the officiating, Real Madrid helped to reinforce that reminder.

And yet, this week actually went better than we could have possibly expected.  We never realistically could have expected more than a loss away at RM.  And yet every team above us with whom we are competing for a Europa spot, dropped points.  Forget about Levante, Malaga, and Valencia.  What we need is to finish in the top 7 (or ideally 6).

To finish seventh, we have to pass two of the following 3 teams: Bilbao, Atletico, or Osasuna.  That is still very possible.

Look at the remaining games for each team (home games in caps):

• Atletico (49 pts): SOCIEDAD, MALAGA, Villareal
• Bilbao (48 pts): REAL MADRID, GETAFE, Levante
• Osasuna (48 pts): Valencia, SOCIEDAD, Santander
• Sevilla (46 pts): BETIS, RAYO, Espanyol

Of all these teams, we probably have the easiest schedule.  Additionally, Bilbao and Atletico are playing each other in the Europa final AND Bilbao is in the Copa del Rey final.

I’m also curious on what happens if Atletico wins Europa, but Bilbao wins CdR.  Does anyone know exactly how all these scenarios could play out?  Is it possible to finish 8th and get a Europa spot?

Anyway, the bottom line is that the critical week is actually next weekend while Osasuna goes up against Valencia who are fighting hard for 3rd, and Bilbao host Real Madrid who have nothing else left to focus on (hahaha).  If they both lose and we win, then we’d at least be in 7th.

This season isn’t over yet.  We still have a LOT to play for and I truly believe that we could still pull this off.

Put your guesses for the top 9 spots in the comments.

Keep the faith.  Vamos mi Sevilla!

Valencia – Sevilla

This match is not particularly important.

 

 

 

if we somehow, miraculously, took all 3. that’d be awesome.

away at Valencia is obviously going to be one of the hardest games of the season. maybe we can use it as motivation to get our first back to back wins since 1983. or whenever it was.

somehow, in this insane season, that would actually put us within 2 of Europa and within 4 of CL.

of course, the loss would leave us just 5 out of relegation…

Sevilla – Osasuna

This match is important.

Marcelino Fired

Draw your own conclusions, but this sucks (again). Since Juande: Jiménez, Álvarez, Manzano and now Marcelino. That’s four in five seasons.

Sevilla – Real Madrid Postmatch

Oops.

RM take the AVE north with another 2-6 win at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán today. Credit where credit is due: RM are clinical finishers. Sevilla are not at the moment. It appeared that VARAS and the defense had seen us past that 10-minute hurdle until Spahic was beaten backside by Ronaldo for the first of RM’s unfortunate six goals.

Sevilla kept generating chances and playing with fire, though, despite the early and mostly unmerited lead for the visitors. I was marveling at our punch-for-punch movement and ball control – especially up the right side between Cáceres, Trocho and Navas, who was constantly beating Marcelo up field to send in often dangerous balls.

Speaking of those balls, sometimes they just don’t go in. Try as we did and for as long as we did, our shots strayed into Iker’s hands and/or parried off the post or over the bar. Iker’s tremendous stretch save of a far-too-cautious Manu shot was the most flabbergasting. Manu had three steps to the ball to decide where to put it and how hard as he eased up on an open backside of the goal. Then, with a triumphant *Pfff* he pushed it at perfect height for Iker’s stretch to push it off the post. Shoot it a bit higher, goal. 1-1. Lower, goal. 1-1. The better save came just after, when Trocho sent a twisting ball low at the near post, which Iker one-handed around the post.