OK guys. This season has been…. rough. Jeremy served up the sobering reminder of who we are as Sevilla fans and what expectations are reasonable. And then, with some help from the officiating, Real Madrid helped to reinforce that reminder.
And yet, this week actually went better than we could have possibly expected. We never realistically could have expected more than a loss away at RM. And yet every team above us with whom we are competing for a Europa spot, dropped points. Forget about Levante, Malaga, and Valencia. What we need is to finish in the top 7 (or ideally 6).
To finish seventh, we have to pass two of the following 3 teams: Bilbao, Atletico, or Osasuna. That is still very possible.
Look at the remaining games for each team (home games in caps):
- Atletico (49 pts): SOCIEDAD, MALAGA, Villareal
- Bilbao (48 pts): REAL MADRID, GETAFE, Levante
- Osasuna (48 pts): Valencia, SOCIEDAD, Santander
- Sevilla (46 pts): BETIS, RAYO, Espanyol
Of all these teams, we probably have the easiest schedule. Additionally, Bilbao and Atletico are playing each other in the Europa final AND Bilbao is in the Copa del Rey final.
I’m also curious on what happens if Atletico wins Europa, but Bilbao wins CdR. Does anyone know exactly how all these scenarios could play out? Is it possible to finish 8th and get a Europa spot?
Anyway, the bottom line is that the critical week is actually next weekend while Osasuna goes up against Valencia who are fighting hard for 3rd, and Bilbao host Real Madrid who have nothing else left to focus on (hahaha). If they both lose and we win, then we’d at least be in 7th.
This season isn’t over yet. We still have a LOT to play for and I truly believe that we could still pull this off.
Put your guesses for the top 9 spots in the comments.
Keep the faith. Vamos mi Sevilla!
My (very optimistic) guesses:
6) Sevilla: W T W – 53 Points
7) Atletico: W L T – 53 Points
8) Osasuna: L T W – 52 Points
9) Bilbao: L W L – 51 Points
Just note that picking up even one point less leaves us tied for 7th and two less points (ie not winning 2 out of 3) means we’d likely miss the out on Europa…
Good post, and you’re right that this next jornada (don’t think we can say “week” since the last 3 matches are within a stretch of about a week of each other) is the moment to take advantage of others’ potential dropped points. I haven’t ever heard of 8th place going to Europe, but the rules and contingencies are always a bit complex.
I would love to see Atletico crash and burn and Athletic isn’t always a friend to Sevilla, so they can burn, too. Sev, Osa, Atl, Ath?
Looking back to last summer, do any of you think this season would have been dramatically different if we had just spent the money on Gio (or anyone who knows how to score)? Or would we have just been in a worse position financially?
PS – Hi! Joined you guys a lot this summer, but then totally dropped off the map as I was writing my Masters thesis this year. Anyways, graduating and hoping to watch more Sevilla next year, hopefully with more wins than this season.
welcome back and congratulations!
Welcome (again), Ryan! Hopefully we’ll be seeing more of you around here! And congrats on graduating–what was your master’s in?
Given how much of the season Negredo and Kanoute spent injured, and that we bought another forward in January to address an apparent need, I think Gio would have been a huge help this season. I think we’d be ok financially if we would have been able to get him for what we were offering, but I’m guessing the price it would have taken to get him off Tottenham would have ruined us. the worst part is, unless you think Manu works as a forward, with Kanoute leaving this summer we’re in the same boat again, needing a forward we can’t really afford.
Let’s hope Kone keeps scoring. He’s at 15 now. One more goal in the final three games… I wonder what his feelings are about all that. He hasn’t exactly spoken glowingly about Sevilla since he left.
Rodri, meanwhile only started 10 games for Barca B, but had 3 goals… Not sure what will happen with him (we had a buyback clause I believe). Acosta is coming back right?
Just read today that Koné is hurt and will miss the next two weeks. That means he may not get a chance to score that last goal. Levante need him, though. They are fighting hard for CL still.
hmmm…. they definitely do need him… though they must also be very cognizant of the 16 goal trigger… makes you wonder a little at least.
Great post, Rene! I was literally opening this page to write this exact post when I saw you’d already done it. Perfect!
I’m not sure, but I don’t think winning the EL opens a spot for anyone other than the team that won it if they weren’t already qualified. So if for example Atleti finishes 5th and wins EL, that won’t add a spot. I can’t remember for sure, but I think if on the other hand Bilbao wins EL but finishes 9th, Bilbao qualifies for the EL at the expense of someone else–6th or 7th depending on who wins CdR. Again, I’m not sure but I think there are just always exactly 3 spots for Spanish teams in EL–not more or less (obviously other than the teams than that enter via CL). When Barca won both the CdR and La Liga, that opened 7th place because otherwise only 2 teams were going to EL. So I guess the worst case scenario (if I’m right about the above) would be that Bilbao wins the CdR and Atleti wins the EL…and both of them finish lower than 6th. I think in that scenario only 5th would qualify for EL.
I’d just like to reiterate how uncertain I am that what I’ve written above is correct. We’ll just have to wait for El Desmarque to clarify things as they often do.
Anyway, I’ll agree we have the easiest runout. I can easily imagine Atleti and Athletic ending up with only 4 points, and Osasuna getting 6. Sevilla’s runout is definitely the easiest, although that Espanyol match could be a doozy. Hopefully by then they’ll be in the no-man’s land between Europe and relegation–they play Barca just before us, so I hope Pep wants to have a last hurrah and doesn’t let Tito give the youngsters a runout. We need them to lose AND be very tired.
yeah, id be surprised if la liga was allowed to send 4 teams to europa. but that would be crazy if the 6th place team didnt get to go (if atleti won europa and bilbao won CdR but both dropped below 6th). that also seems bizarre to me. we’ll wait for eldesmarque.